Meeting the growing demand for conveniently located homes in walkable neighborhoods could significantly reduce the growth in the number of miles Americans drive, shrinking the nation's carbon footprint while giving people more housing choices, according to a team of urban planning researchers.

In a comprehensive review of dozens of studies, the researchers conclude in a report published by the Urban Land Institute that development patterns are both a key contributor to climate change and an essential factor in combating it.

The report, released today by 1000 Friends of Florida, warns that if sprawling development continues to fuel growth in driving, the projected 59 percent national increase in the total miles driven between 2005 and 2030 will overwhelm expected gains from vehicle efficiency and low-carbon fuels. Even with those technological improvements, national vehicle emissions of carbon dioxide would be 41 percent above today's levels, well over the goal of reducing CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2050, according to Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change.

"Florida can and should take the lead in promoting more compact patterns of growth," says Florida Department of Community Affairs Secretary Tom Pelham. "Our health, our pocketbooks, and our natural resources would all benefit."

"We applaud Gov. Crist for establishing the Florida Governor's Action Team on Energy and Climate Change," says 1000 Friends of Florida President Charles Pattison, who was appointed to this newly created panel. "We hope to work with the team to make smart growth a key strategy in mitigating global warming in Florida."

Florida's residents are driving more than ever before, fueling increases in vehicle fuel emissions, one of the leading sources of global warming pollution. According to Florida Department of Transportation data, annual vehicle miles traveled in Florida increased from 127.8 billion in 1995 to 203.8 billion in 2005, a 59 percent increase. This trend is projected to continue into the future, with 228 billion annual vehicle miles traveled anticipated in 2011, a 79 percent increase over 1995.

Spread-out development is the key factor in that rate of growth, the research team found. Florida 2060, a study released by 1000 Friends of Florida in 2006, included the projection that if Florida's current sprawling patterns of development continue over the next 50 years, roughly 7 million acres of additional land will be converted from rural to urban uses in Florida.

On average, Americans living in compact neighborhoods where cars are not the only transportation option drive a third fewer miles than those in typical automobile-oriented places, such as subdivisions and office parks, the report found. The report cites real estate projections showing that two-thirds of development expected to be on the ground in 2050 is not yet built, meaning that the potential for change is profound. The paper calculates that shifting 60 percent of new growth to compact patterns would save 85 million tons of CO2 annually by 2030, equivalent to a 28 percent increase in fuel economy standards.

The findings show that people who move into compact, "green neighborhoods" are making as big a contribution to fighting global warming as those who buy the most efficient hybrid vehicles, but remain in car-dependent areas. While demand for such smart-growth development is growing, government regulations, government spending, and transportation policies all still favor sprawling, automobile-dependent development. The paper recommends changes in all three areas to make green neighborhoods more available and more affordable. It also calls for including smart-growth strategies as a fundamental tenet in climate change plans at the local, state, and federal level.

The study represents a collaboration among leading urban planning researchers at the University of Maryland, the University of Utah, Fehr and Peers Associates, the Center for Clean Air Policy and the Urban Land Institute. Smart Growth America coordinated the multi-disciplinary team that developed the recommended policy actions and is leading a broad coalition to develop those strategies further.

The executive summary, full white paper, and data on VMT growth are available at: www.1000friendsofflorida.org/info/climatemain.asp.