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POPULATION AND URBAN LAND IN FLORIDA
PROJECTED TO DOUBLE IN 50 YEARS

Leadership and Long-Term Planning Are Needed to Protect
Florida's Environment and Quality of Life

On December 6, 2006, 1000 Friends of Florida released two studies that define the growth management challenges facing Florida, a state whose population is projected to double to 36 million by 2060. The first study, entitled Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida, projects the amount of urbanized land in the State of Florida will double by 2060, based on current development patterns. A companion study, entitled A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060, determined that the governor, state legislators, and citizens can change the course of development in Florida through deliberate growth leadership. A copy of the Executive Summary is attached, and the full studies, regional summary sheets and other materials are available at http://1000fof.org/planning/2060.asp.

"Together, these studies provide a wake-up call for every Florida resident, business and elected official," said Charles Pattison, Executive Director of 1000 Friends of Florida, the state's leading growth management advocate. "A tidal wave of growth is headed our way, and we need proactive leadership and long-term, large-scale planning to ensure we protect our environment and quality of life. We understand the scope of the challenge before us - now is the time for us plan intelligently for the next fifty plus years."

"Florida has been one of the fastest growing states in the country for seven decades," said Peter S. Rummell, chairman and CEO of the St. Joe Company, Florida's largest private landowner. "These studies confirm two things. Over the next fifty years, we can expect Florida to continue to be one of our nation's fastest growing states. And second, we have the opportunity to prepare, to learn from our mistakes - and to learn from what we've done right. We can enact sensible, sustainable development strategies that accommodate growth while protecting the environment and the things that make Florida special."

"These studies make clear that, as growth in the state accelerates, agricultural land will continue to be in the path of development," said Joseph Duda, President and CEO of A. Duda and Sons, one of Florida's leading agribusinesses. "Agriculture is a cornerstone of the Florida economy, and farmers and ranchers contribute significantly to the stewardship of the state's land, wildlife and natural resources. We must develop a visionary strategy that maintains agriculture's stewardship role while providing incentives for those who elect to keep their land in agriculture."

Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida, was prepared by the University of Florida's GeoPlan Center. It projects that if current development patterns continue, roughly seven million additional acres of Florida land will be converted from rural to urban uses. This will include approximately 2.7 million acres agricultural lands and another 2.7 million acres of native habitat. Additionally, a "sea of urbanization" will surround much of today's protected conservation lands unless alternative development patterns are promoted.

According to the study, if current development patterns continue numerous counties will "build out" by 2060 or before, and many other counties will convert from rural to urban. Among the study's specific findings:

  • The central Florida region will experience "explosive" growth, with continuous urban development from Ocala to Sebring, and St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach. The study projects that the I-75 and I-4 corridors will be fully developed by 2060.
  • Seminole, Orange, Brevard, Indian River, Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Manatee counties are expected to build out in the period from 2020 to 2040. The study projects population growth will spill into the surrounding counties and virtually all the natural systems and wildlife corridors in this region will be fragmented, if not replaced, by urban development.
  • Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties are expected to build out before 2060, causing an almost continuous band of urban development along the southwest Florida coast. The study projects that population growth will spillover into adjacent inland counties.
  • DeSoto, Hendry and Glades counties are expected to experience the most dramatic transformation over the next fifty years as they go from largely rural to largely urban in character. The result will be an almost continuous urban strip linking Ft. Myers to West Palm Beach.
  • Southeast Florida will become mostly urbanized, with the exception of some urban lands north and south of Lake Okeechobee.
  • The study projects that all vacant land in the Keys will be consumed by development by 2060, including lands not necessarily accessible by automobile.
  • Duval County is projected to be completely built out sometime after 2040, and by 2060 its population is anticipated to spill out into Nassau, Clay, St. Johns and Baker counties, forever changing their rural character.
  • Only the Panhandle and Big Bend are projected to retain significant areas of open space, and this is only if current growth and development patterns continue.

The companion study, entitled A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060 outlines steps that need to be taken today to protect the environment and quality of life while accommodating growth. The study calls for a shift to "growth leadership" in Florida - a proactive approach to plan for the future that encourages large-scale, long-term planning and development that is both sustainable and environmentally friendly.

Prepared by the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology, A Time for Leadership notes that the governor, state legislators, and citizens can change the course of development in Florida through deliberate growth leadership. Overarching recommendations include:

  • Expand Florida Forever. Accelerate and expand this highly successful natural-lands acquisition program to permanently protect not only natural lands and open and recreation space, but also agricultural and forestry lands.
  • Adopt New Policy on Conversion of Rural Lands to Urban Use. New public policy should mandate that the conversion of rural land to urban density only be allowed in return for significant public benefit, especially the preservation of natural lands, open space, and agricultural lands.
  • Create a 100-Year Legacy Plan. The statewide plan should identify the lands for permanent protection from development and lands that are appropriate for development and redevelopment. All state funding should be consistent with the Legacy Plan.
  • Identify Leaders and Galvanize Support. Identify champions to organize and advocate for Florida's vision and plans. Such leadership must come from a broad cross section of Floridians who believe that our future is far too important to just let it happen.

"We must define a new path to the future," said 1000 Friends' Vice President Tim Jackson, a leader in producing the studies. "We must all work together to find a way to accommodate growth while keeping Florida the special place it has been. We all have a stake in protecting our quality of life. We owe it to our children and future generations of Floridians."

"An alarm bell has been sounded," said Vicki Tschinkel, Florida Director of The Nature Conservancy. "But that alarm should be a call for realistic large-scale planning, rather than platitudes about slowing growth. The future has not yet been written. We can still choose the kind of place Florida will be in fifty years. But we are going to have to work together to make it the special place we all want it to be."

Funding for Florida 2060 and A Time for Leadership was provided through generous donations by The St. Joe Company, The Nature Conservancy, A. Duda and Sons, Glatting Jackson, Robert Parks, Fishkind Associates, and WilsonMiller.

Established in 1986, 1000 Friends of Florida works to protect natural areas, fight urban sprawl, promote sensible development patterns, and provide affordable housing. Above all, it strives to give citizens the tools to keep Florida's communities livable. For more information on 1000 Friends, including the full studies and graphics, please visit www.1000friendsofflorida.org.